Pitches, Balls and Back-ups – Where the Ashes Will Be Decided

Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|